565 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
17 Oct 2027
Top Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Impact
Earlier
Strength
27 votes
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Impact
later
Strength
1 vote
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Impact
later
Strength
22 votes
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Impact
later
Strength
0 vote
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Impact
later
Strength
0 vote