FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Your essay is now in Draft mode

    Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

    Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?

    Created by Tamay on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    So far, Trump appointed two Justices to the Supreme Court of the United States - Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. There are currently no vacancies.

    Will Donald Trump fail to appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his first term?

    Resolution is positive if at least one of the following two conditions are fulfilled:

    1. Donald Trump fails to send the nomination of at least one new Supreme Court Justice to the Senate.

    2. Donald Trump sends the nomination of at least one new Supreme Court Justice to the Senate but no nominated Justice is sworn in before the end of his first term, for whatever reason.

    For the purposes of this question, any situation in which Trump is temporarily not exercising his office (e.g., Cheney was Acting President when Bush had surgery) will not preclude a positive resolution, as long as he continues to be the President in the technical constitutional sense.

    This question resolves on the last day of Trump's (first) term in the office of the President. If it resolves positively, this question closes two days prior to the date when resolution is triggered.

    Categories:
    Politics – US
    Series – Future Perfect 2020

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list