Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
54
784
forecasters
23
54 comments
784 forecasters
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2025
2 more...
What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?
Follow
share
embed
community
<0.2
result
0.0011
Resolved
0.0011
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (54)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
1 comment
12 forecasters
Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth or moon?
5%
chance
7 comments
80 forecasters
People Affected by Natural Disasters
2 comments
166 forecasters
Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?
7%
chance
8 comments
96 forecasters
What % will consider AI/computers/tech to be most important problem in Jan '28?
Current estimate
10.8 % mentioning
10 comments
96 forecasters
Primary Energy from Nuclear Power
5 comments
693 forecasters
Global temperature anomaly in 2026?
Current estimate
1.45 °C
3 comments
37 forecasters
"Other risk" to cause (near) extinction
25%
chance
3 comments
44 forecasters
US stock market crash of >10% in any week before 2027?
41.5%
chance