Question
What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?
Total Forecasters746
Community Prediction0.2 (0.2 - 0.2)
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CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.2 | 82.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <0.2 | — |
| median | <0.2 | — |
| upper 75% | <0.2 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15 | 0.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Feb 10, 2025
Closes:Mar 25, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Mar 27, 2025
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 10, 2025
Closes:Mar 25, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Mar 27, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch