Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

GOP holds US Senate on 2021-01-03.


Currently, with 53 seats, the Republicans occupy a majority of the 100 seats in the Senate (

The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections.

According to Vox's Dylan Matthews, the Republican stronghold can be upset:

There’s a chance, if literally everything breaks in Democrats’ favor, that they retake the Senate. But it requires a lot going right for them, and even one botched race means Republicans hold control.

On paper this should have been a promising year for Dems. Twenty-three Republican seats are up, compared to only 12 Democratic seats; these were, except for a couple of special elections, seats that were last open in 2014, when Republicans gained a whopping nine seats. You would think that Democrats could regain some of those nine that they lost, but you’d mostly be wrong. Democrats lost seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, and West Virginia that they’re basically not contesting this time around. Iowa and Montana look only slightly better.

Instead, Democrats’ hopes rest on the two 2014 losses they think they can reverse — in North Carolina and Colorado — as well as a special election in Arizona, an unlikely Alabama seat they won in 2017, and Susan Collins’ once-safe seat in Maine that they’re hoping her vote for Kavanaugh will make competitive. Sweeps of this magnitude do happen (2006 and 2008 both saw huge Democratic sweeps), they’re rare, especially as the parties have polarized geographically, and Democrats are underdogs in Alabama and North Carolina in particular. There’s a chance the Dems pull it out, but I think it’s quite unlikely.

Will the GOP hold the Senate in 2020?

This resolves positively if the Senate Majority leader elected at the start of the 2021 congressional session is a Republican.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site