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Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?
On 2017-11-20, NASA's Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) cubesat was first deployed from the International Space Station for its 90-day mission. Over the following two years, its mission was extended as its performance continued nominally.
That ended when NASA lost contact with ASTERIA on 2019-12-05. In a statement on 2020-01-03, NASA announced that it expected to continue attempting to reconnect with the cubesat into March. Will all further attempts to reestablish communications with ASTERIA prior to 2020-03-31 fail?
Noting that NASA didn't release the information about losing contact with ASTERIA until nearly a month later, this question will resolve positively if no reports of contact with ASTERIA between 2019-12-06 and 2020-03-31 (inclusive) can be found by 2020-05-31.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.