Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?

Question

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.

On 9 January 2020, the first 2019-nCoV-related death occurred in a 61-year-old man in Wuhan. On 16 January 2020, Chinese authorities announced the death of a 69-year-old man in Wuhan, the second death in China and in the outbreak.

Because some degree of human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the WHO warned that a wider outbreak could occur. As of 17 January 2020, 44 total infections have been reported; 42 in China, 1 in Japan and 1 in Thailand.

A situation summary from the US Centers for Disease Control is available here.

This question asks: How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?

Resolution should be the total global number of human infections that occured before January 1 2021, estimated by (in decreasing order of priority):

  • The World Health Organisation.
  • The Center for Disease Control.
  • The United Nations.
  • Credible press reports. If there are several press reports judged credible by a Metaculus admin, resolution should be the median of the published estimates.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.