Question

Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

Resolved:No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction

38%

(25% - 64%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

26.5

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Oct 15, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 16, 2016

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

85%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

8.6%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%