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When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. Lee et al., 2018 ).

Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. Johnson et al., 2008 ).

However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. Plomin et al., 1998 ).

The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is given by its SNP heritability. SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 here. Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone.

However, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability.

Positive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.


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