1 comment
393 forecasters
Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?
99.9%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
Opened:Feb 27, 2025
Closes:Nov 29, 2025
Resolved:Aug 8, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2025
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When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
16 forecasters
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
14% chance
292
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
21 forecasters