Question

Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?

Resolved:Yes

1 comment1

Total Forecasters393

Community Prediction

99.9%

(98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

6.0

Community Baseline Score

57.9

Authors:

kikollan

Opened:

Feb 27, 2025

Closes:

Nov 29, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2025

Kiko Llaneras Tournament 🔮

Artificial Intelligence

2025 Leaderboard

OpenAI releases hotly anticipated GPT-5 update

PBS NewsHour•Aug 8, 2025

OpenAI launches ChatGPT-5, promises ‘PhD level expert’ for all users

New York Post•Aug 8, 2025

OpenAI launches GPT-5, its first flagship update to ChatGPT model in years

Independent•Aug 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?

18%

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

90%

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

22 May 2029