2 comments
300 forecasters
Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 27, 2025
Closes:Nov 29, 2025
Resolved:May 21, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will Claude 5 be released?
21 Aug 2026
(04 May 2026 - 09 Jan 2027)
21 Aug 2026
(04 May 2026 - 09 Jan 2027)
10 forecasters
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
18% chance
325
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
9 forecasters