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Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?
An often unstated assumption behind predictions of the U.S. Presidential race is that the electors chosen to vote in the Electoral College will vote for the popular vote winner in their state (except for some electors from Nebraska and Maine, who vote based on the popular vote winner in their congressional district).
To maximize the chance of this happening, many states have enacted laws to punish electors who do not follow the wishes of the voters in their state. These laws range from fines as high as $1000 to a 4th-degree misdemeanor.
At least three 2016 electors (in Texas, Georgia, and Washington) have threatened not to vote for either Trump or Clinton, even if those candidates win the popular vote in their state.
Will there be at least one "faithless elector" in the 2016 election?
Resolution is positive if the actual final electoral vote taken in the electoral college diverges from the consensus projected electoral vote results based on the popular vote results in each state and/or congressional district.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.