modeling intelligent understanding modeling calibrated predictions assembling contingent estimations exploring calibrated forecasts composing definitive forecasts mapping the future mapping accurate futures generating predictive contingencies exploring precise understanding forecasting accurate forecasts mapping accurate estimations assembling precise estimations calculating critical contingencies exploring accurate understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?

An often unstated assumption behind predictions of the U.S. Presidential race is that the electors chosen to vote in the Electoral College will vote for the popular vote winner in their state (except for some electors from Nebraska and Maine, who vote based on the popular vote winner in their congressional district).

To maximize the chance of this happening, many states have enacted laws to punish electors who do not follow the wishes of the voters in their state. These laws range from fines as high as $1000 to a 4th-degree misdemeanor.

At least three 2016 electors (in Texas, Georgia, and Washington) have threatened not to vote for either Trump or Clinton, even if those candidates win the popular vote in their state.

Will there be at least one "faithless elector" in the 2016 election?

Resolution is positive if the actual final electoral vote taken in the electoral college diverges from the consensus projected electoral vote results based on the popular vote results in each state and/or congressional district.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.