Question
When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
24 Jan 2026
(31 Aug 2025 - 17 Aug 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 31 Aug 2025 | — |
| median | 24 Jan 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 17 Aug 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >31 Dec 2029 | 0.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 30, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 7, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029
Authors:
Opened:Mar 30, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 7, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029