Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
15
82
forecasters
7
15 comments
82 forecasters
AI Technical Benchmarks
4 more...
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
No
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (15)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
24 comments
98 forecasters
Greatest Computation Used in AI Training
3 comments
8 forecasters
FLOP usage for training transformative AI
Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
1 comment
8 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
4 comments
2 forecasters
Exfiltration of Compute-Intensive AI Models
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
99.4%
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
87.7%
Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28
77.5%
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
72.8%
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
result:
No
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
13 comments
26 forecasters
Most Expensive AI Training Run by Year
0 comments
9 forecasters
Chinese Org Trains on > 1500-TFLOP GPUs
Current estimate
24 Mar 2026