Question
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters82
Community Prediction
55%
(50% - 61%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
15.7
Authors:
Opened:Feb 3, 2020
Closes:May 15, 2020
Resolves:Feb 15, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 4, 2020
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
5.4×10²⁶
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.28
Authors:
Opened:Feb 3, 2020
Closes:May 15, 2020
Resolves:Feb 15, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 4, 2020
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
5.4×10²⁶
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.28