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EV battery storage costs

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric. However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see here). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.

In their annual Battery Price Survey, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.

When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?


This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.

This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.


These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to BNEF survey results:

2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)


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