generating contingent estimations exploring accurate insights exploring contingent wisdom generating precise predictions exploring probable predictions mapping the future computing precise wisdom generating accurate insights aggregating precise contingencies aggregating intelligent estimations assembling accurate wisdom predicting calibrated understanding delivering predictive wisdom delivering accurate futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?

Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric. However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see here). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.

In their annual Battery Price Survey, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.

When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?


This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.

This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.


These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to BNEF survey results:

2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.