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Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?

Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted "first in the nation" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.

On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to an unprecedented delay in reporting results, leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead" on MSNBC.

Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?

This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is "first in the nation".

For the purposes of this question, a "caucus" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See "walking subcaucus" voting system for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).

A "first in the nation primary event" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the "first in the nation primary event".

The "US Democratic primary election" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary.


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