modeling predictive forecasts formulating contingent understanding mapping probable understanding exploring calibrated understanding formulating calibrated insights mapping the future composing calibrated insights mapping definitive understanding formulating critical estimations crowdsourcing intelligent futures crowdsourcing probable understanding forecasting critical futures formulating intelligent wisdom predicting intelligent contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?

Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted "first in the nation" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.

On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to an unprecedented delay in reporting results, leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead" on MSNBC.

Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?

This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is "first in the nation".

For the purposes of this question, a "caucus" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See "walking subcaucus" voting system for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).

A "first in the nation primary event" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the "first in the nation primary event".

The "US Democratic primary election" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.