Question
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Total Forecasters3
Community Prediction
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Aug 2029 | — |
| median | Mar 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2036 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2040 | 11.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 30, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Mar 30, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2025