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    When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

    Created by Matthew_Barnett on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Matthew_Barnett on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    From Wikipedia,

    The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.

    To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in this question for COVID-19.

    • This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.

    • Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened.

    The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:

    • Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.

    • Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.

    • No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV

    • The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.

    If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.

    Categories:
    Biology – Infectious Disease
    Effective Altruism

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