Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

Question

From Wikipedia,

The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.

To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in this question for COVID-19.

  • This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.

  • Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened.

The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:

  • Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.

  • Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.

  • No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV

  • The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.

If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.