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Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?

Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. Medicare for all has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.

Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?

For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:

1a) Is widely reported in the media as "Medicare for All"


1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare

2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.

3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.

3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.

3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively

If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.

For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.

This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).

This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.


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