16 comments
154 forecasters
If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?
24%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 24% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 11, 2020
Closes:Nov 4, 2020
Resolved:Jan 24, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 13, 2020
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
24% chance
50
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
7 forecasters
Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?
3% chance
168