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If on 2020 June 7 no Democratic candidate has a majority, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?

As of 2020 February 19, there are 8 active candidates for the 2020 US Democratic Party presidential nominee: Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden.

From February 3 to June 6, about 3979 pledged delegates will pledge their votes to a candidate.

To win the primary at the Democratic convention's first ballot in July, a candidate needs over half of the pledged delegate votes: about 1990 (out of 3979).

To win the primary at any later ballots, a candidate needs over half of the votes from both pledged delegates and about 771 unpledged superdelegates: about 2376 (out of 4750 = 3979 + 771).

The conditions in which superdelegates can cast decisive votes have changed since the last election.

If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?

The question resolves:

  • ambiguously if on 2020 June 7 some Democratic candidate has over half of the pledged delegates,

  • positively if on 2020 June 7 every candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, and Bernie Sanders is the nominee, and

  • negatively otherwise,
using delegate counts from FiveThirtyEight.

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