Metaculus
Question
Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
If on 2020 June 7 no Democratic candidate has a majority, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?
As of 2020 February 19, there are 8 active candidates for the 2020 US Democratic Party presidential nominee: Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden.
From February 3 to June 6, about 3979 pledged delegates will pledge their votes to a candidate.
To win the primary at the Democratic convention's first ballot in July, a candidate needs over half of the pledged delegate votes: about 1990 (out of 3979).
To win the primary at any later ballots, a candidate needs over half of the votes from both pledged delegates and about 771 unpledged superdelegates: about 2376 (out of 4750 = 3979 + 771).
The conditions in which superdelegates can cast decisive votes have changed since the last election.
If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?
The question resolves:
- ambiguously if on 2020 June 7 some Democratic candidate has over half of the pledged delegates,
- positively if on 2020 June 7 every candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, and Bernie Sanders is the nominee, and
- negatively otherwise,
{{qctrl.predictionString()}}
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Thanks for predicting!
Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.
Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!
Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
Community Stats
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.