crowdsourcing contingent forecasts predicting calibrated futures aggregating intelligent forecasts crowdsourcing quantitative insights crowdsourcing definitive wisdom mapping the future predicting contingent predictions computing definitive futures modeling contingent insights mapping quantitative understanding predicting critical wisdom mapping calibrated understanding forecasting quantitative wisdom mapping contingent estimations
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?

The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it hasn't always been this way. It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously failed to increase the size of the court despite his party having a supermajority in congress.

This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.

This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.

Categories: Politics – US

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.