Question

What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?

Resolved:14.39 °C

60 comments60

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction

<14 °C

(<14 °C - 14.7 °C)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<14 °C	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15 °C
community	51.2%	<14 °C	<14 °C	14.73 °C	14.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<14 °C	51.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	<14 °C	—
median	<14 °C	—
upper 75%	14.73 °C	—
Upper bound
>15 °C	14.1%	—

What was the final result?14.39 °C

Community Peer Score

24.0

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

Mar 20, 2025

Closes:

Mar 21, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 5, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 21, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

47%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

26%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

Mar 20, 2025

Closes:

Mar 21, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 5, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 21, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

47%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

26%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%