19 forecasters

Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?

47.5%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 30, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 5, 2025

Mass slaughter in Gaza stands apart from other genocides, Chris Sidoti says – ‘People cannot escape’

Guardian•Sep 30, 2025

Should Israel be banned from international competitions?

Al Jazeera•Sep 30, 2025

Labour conference to vote on whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

Guardian•Sep 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch