5 forecasters

Which party will win the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election?

Reform UKresult: Yes

Labour54.8%

Conservative3.2%

Forecast Timeline

Reform UK

Labour

Conservative

Others (3)

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 19, 2025

Closes:

Oct 18, 2025

Resolved:

May 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 23, 2025

2025 Leaderboard

Farage: Labour in 'Meltdown', Election 'Sooner Than Expected'

Breitbart•Sep 17, 2025

Labor is favoured to win the Kiama byelection. A big loss could be the beginning of the end for Liberal leader Mark Speakman

Guardian•Sep 11, 2025

Labour by-election campaign in meltdown

Spectator (UK)•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch