Question

How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters367

Community Prediction

32.2 journalists

(13.8 journalists - 67.2 journalists)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>200
community	13.8	32.17	67.18	5.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	13.8	—
median	32.17	—
upper 75%	67.18	—
Upper bound
>200	5.2%	—

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Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

77%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?

66%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

77%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?

66%