Question

How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters328

Community Prediction

36.6 journalists

(15.8 journalists - 76.6 journalists)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>200
community	15.83	36.65	76.6	6.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	15.83	—
median	36.65	—
upper 75%	76.6	—
Upper bound
>200	6.3%	—

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Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

75%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

75%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%