conditional
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030)

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

56%
56%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

9%
9%
1
0

Make a Prediction

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030)

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

50%
community: 56%

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Cato
Opened:Aug 22, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030