111 comments
524 forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
85%chance
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Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 5, 2020
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96% chance
2.7k
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
174 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
12% chance
62