173 comments
284 forecasters
Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?
70%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 70% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 13, 2020
Closes:May 31, 2020
Resolved:Nov 19, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 14, 2020
When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
23 Oct 2028
(14 Feb 2026 - Oct 2033)
23 Oct 2028
(14 Feb 2026 - Oct 2033)
48 forecasters
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
3 forecasters
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24