Question
Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?
Resolved:YesTotal Forecasters203
Community Prediction
90%
(76% - 93%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Peer Score
4.3
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
289k
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
289k