62 comments
203 forecasters
Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?
90%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolved:Mar 28, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
24% chance
54
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
51 forecasters
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
26 forecasters