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When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

In 2018, electric cars constituted 0.45% of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to ban all sales of non-electric cars by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to move to 100% electric. On the other hand, by Wikipedia data only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.

The question is:

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?

The date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%.

For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as "passenger car", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.


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