17 comments
40 forecasters
Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?
46%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 46% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 16, 2020
Closes:Mar 2, 2020
Resolved:Mar 5, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 17, 2020
Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?
65% chance
985
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
8 forecasters
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
2 forecasters