370 comments
881 forecasters
Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?
6%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 6% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 24, 2020
Closes:May 1, 2021
Resolved:May 27, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020
Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?
28% chance
25
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
62% chance
56
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23% chance
225