Question

Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

Resolved:Ambiguous

137

370 comments370

Total Forecasters881

Community Prediction

(1% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Feb 24, 2020

Closes:

May 1, 2021

Resolves:

May 27, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 24, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

China Announces Corruption Probe into Mayor of Wuhan in 2020

Breitbart•Jul 8, 2025

EXCLUSIVE: USAID Quietly Sent Thousands Of Viruses To Chinese Military-Linked Biolab

Daily Caller•Jul 8, 2025

Will we ever know for sure how COVID-19 began? Not without more data from China, WHO says

•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Feb 24, 2020

Closes:

May 1, 2021

Resolves:

May 27, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 24, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

China Announces Corruption Probe into Mayor of Wuhan in 2020

Breitbart•Jul 8, 2025

EXCLUSIVE: USAID Quietly Sent Thousands Of Viruses To Chinese Military-Linked Biolab

Daily Caller•Jul 8, 2025

Will we ever know for sure how COVID-19 began? Not without more data from China, WHO says

•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%