Question

Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

Resolved :Ambiguous

137

370 comments370

Total Forecasters877

Community Prediction6%

Make a Prediction

community: 6%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 6.0%mean 12.4%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

18%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The US is ramping up bird flu surveillance – but will it be enough?

New Scientist•Oct 8, 2024

As bird flu outbreak expands in California, dairy farms report it’s worse than they expected

CNN•Oct 8, 2024

EcoHealth Alliance had ‘pending’ $4M grants to study Marburg, other viruses before federal suspension

New York Post•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

18%