Question

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Resolved:No

113 comments113

Total Forecasters589

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

12.1

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Feb 19, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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New WHO report fails to rule out COVID-19 lab leak origin as China continues to impede investigation

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