Question
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters589
Community Prediction
1%
(0.1% - 3%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
12.1
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
4%
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
3.8%
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
4%
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
3.8%