113 comments
589 forecasters
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2020
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
65% chance
54
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
81