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29
157
forecasters
21
29 comments
157 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
3 more...
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
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72%
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36 comments
243 forecasters
Time between weak AGI and oracle ASI
Current estimate
30.6 months
5 comments
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Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
33.3%
Anthropic
24.4%
OpenAI
23.3%
Other
11.3%
2 others
608 comments
1.7k forecasters
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
Current estimate
30 May 2028
31 comments
219 forecasters
Control Problem Solution Before AGI
1%
chance
51 comments
344 forecasters
Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
Current estimate
36.4 months
653 comments
1.9k forecasters
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
Current estimate
Jan 2033
30 comments
90 forecasters
AGI Manhattan/Apollo Project
Current estimate
14 Dec 2027
7 comments
43 forecasters
When AGI arrives after Turing Test
Current estimate
1.22 years