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How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause” detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China – the seventh-largest city in China with 11 million residents.
By February 21, the virus had spread to approximately 30 countries, but not to any within the WHO African region. (There is one case in Egypt, but that is counted as Eastern Mediterranean instead.)
Every day, the WHO posts a situation report breaking down the number of confirmed cases by region. The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) also visualizes and tracks the reported cases on a daily timescale.
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) will be reported in Africa by the WHO on March 27?
If no WHO report with the specified information is published on March 27, we defer to the last such WHO report published before that date.
According to the WHO, Africa is defined as including the entire territory of the following countries:
Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Swaziland, Togo, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Note that the count excludes cases classified under "international conveyance", such as cruise ships.
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