🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?

Resolved :287k302k
12
22
Total Forecasters66
Community Prediction302k (221k - 418k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<1k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>100M
...
...
...
...
...
0.1%
220.8k
302.1k
418.4k
0.1%

What was the final result?287k

Community Baseline Score
56.0
Community Peer Score
39.7
Authors:
ignorance.prior
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard
Italy
Virology
Engineering
China
United Kingdom
Hubei
Finland
Public health
Wuhan

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