Question

Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters238

Community Prediction

2.5%

(1% - 6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2.5%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

May 12, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Iran and Europeans hold nuclear talks with questions over future sanctions

NBC•Jul 25, 2025

Iran Nuclear Talks Restart: What We Know

Newsweek•Jul 25, 2025

Europeans and Iran meet in Istanbul as the return of sanctions looms over nuclear deadlock

Associated Press•Jul 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

35%

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

0.2%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

May 12, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Iran and Europeans hold nuclear talks with questions over future sanctions

NBC•Jul 25, 2025

Iran Nuclear Talks Restart: What We Know

Newsweek•Jul 25, 2025

Europeans and Iran meet in Istanbul as the return of sanctions looms over nuclear deadlock

Associated Press•Jul 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

35%

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

0.2%