16
86 forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
ResolvedNo
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Decreases Likelihood
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Decreases Likelihood
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
Decreases Likelihood
IAEA's relations with Iran are severely strained
Decreases Likelihood
Egypt offers mediation in nuclear talks
Increases Likelihood