For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


The CDC's level 3 Travel Health Notice advises against non-essential travel:

Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.

As of February 21, 2020 the CDC has issued a level 3 travel health notice for mainland China due to the novel coronavirus.

For how many countries (part or whole) will the CDC issue a Warning Level 3 Travel Health notice before 00:00 GMT on May 15th, due to the 2019 novel coronavirus?

Determination of the answer will be made by consulting the relevant CDC noticeboard. Positive resolution requires the CDC mentioning the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in their reasons for issuing the Level 3 Travel Health Notice.

For the purpose of this question, a "country" is any UN member state, plus the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and the island of Taiwan, which the CDC evaluates separately.

To be clear, if a warning is issued but expires before May 15, it still counts. This is a cumulative total.

ETA (10/03/2020) If the CDC issues a Level 3 continent-wide (or a multi-country regional) advisory then all the countries mentioned in the advisory should count.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site