434 forecasters

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Nov 6, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2060

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 8, 2016

Natural Sciences

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When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

(Jan 2042 - 2207)

(Jan 2042 - 2207)

173 forecasters

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?