16 comments
434 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.3%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 6, 2016
Closes:Jan 1, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 8, 2016
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?
Mar 2073
(Dec 2041 - 2204)
Mar 2073
(Dec 2041 - 2204)
173 forecasters
Will mind uploading happen before AGI?
1% chance
88
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
82.5k humans
(340 - 14.9M)
82.5k humans
(340 - 14.9M)
52 forecasters