Question

Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?

Resolved:No

59 comments59

Total Forecasters256

Community Prediction

(1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

69.1

Community Baseline Score

20.8

Authors:

Sourian

Opened:

May 6, 2025

Closes:

Jun 6, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 14, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 6, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

13%

Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

99.9%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.5%

Authors:

Sourian

Opened:

May 6, 2025

Closes:

Jun 6, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 14, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 6, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

13%

Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

99.9%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.5%