46 comments
92 forecasters
Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 6, 2020
Closes:May 17, 2020
Resolved:May 11, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 8, 2020
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
18 forecasters
When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?
02 Apr 2026
(13 Dec 2025 - 13 Oct 2026)
02 Apr 2026
(13 Dec 2025 - 13 Oct 2026)
10 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
49.1%
(37.5 - 60.7)
49.1%
(37.5 - 60.7)
60 forecasters