Question

Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

87 comments87

Total Forecasters80

Community Prediction

29.7%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29.7%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

15.0

Community Baseline Score

-90.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

May 16, 2025

Closes:

May 16, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 16, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Anthropic’s Claude AI model can now handle longer prompts

TechCrunch•Aug 12, 2025

Anthropic takes aim at OpenAI, offers Claude to ‘all three branches of government’ for $1

TechCrunch•Aug 12, 2025

Claude Fans Threw a Funeral for Anthropic’s Retired AI Model

Wired•Aug 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

16 Oct 2027

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Nov 2030

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

May 16, 2025

Closes:

May 16, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 16, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Anthropic’s Claude AI model can now handle longer prompts

TechCrunch•Aug 12, 2025

Anthropic takes aim at OpenAI, offers Claude to ‘all three branches of government’ for $1

TechCrunch•Aug 12, 2025

Claude Fans Threw a Funeral for Anthropic’s Retired AI Model

Wired•Aug 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

16 Oct 2027

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Nov 2030

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%